Four months after being sworn in, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ three-party coalition faces its first serious report card — and with an October election already shaping political calculations in Riga, how that record is perceived may matter more than the record itself.
What was promised in March
Kulbergs took office in early March atop a coalition built around a pledge to stabilise prices, speed up EU fund absorption, and hold the defence spending line at close to 5% of GDP. Those three commitments have anchored nearly every major decision the government has made since.
Where the coalition can point to results
On the cost-of-living front, today’s VAT reduction on bread, milk, poultry and eggs is the clearest deliverable, arriving just as the government’s popularity has begun to soften in opinion polls. Defence spending has also held roughly steady, with the Kulbergs government confirming procurement contracts for additional NASAMS air-defence units alongside allies this spring. EU fund absorption, however, tells a mixed story: officials at the Finance Ministry acknowledge that contracted cohesion-fund spending sits below the pace needed to avoid leaving money unspent before the 2021–2027 programming period closes.
Where critics see stalling
Opposition MPs argue the coalition has produced announcements rather than outcomes, pointing to construction permitting reform that was promised for a June vote but has slipped to at least September. Political analyst Ivars Ijabs, of the University of Latvia, described the government’s first four months as “cautious to the point of drift,” noting that Kulbergs has avoided major legislative fights that might destabilise his narrow parliamentary majority ahead of the vote.
The politics behind the caution
That caution is arguably the point. With the Saeima election set for early October, none of the three coalition partners appears eager to take on politically costly reforms — pension changes and further tax adjustments among them — before voters have their say. Government insiders say a more ambitious legislative push is being held back deliberately for a potential second term, assuming the coalition survives the election with a workable majority. Polling from SKDS in June put the coalition’s combined approval at 34%, down four points since taking office but still ahead of the two largest opposition blocs individually. Analysts caution that Latvia’s fragmented multi-party system means such polling translates unpredictably into seats, particularly with at least six parties expected to clear the 5% threshold in October.
Business lobby groups have offered a mixed verdict on the coalition’s record so far: the Latvian Chamber of Commerce and Industry welcomed the VAT move but pressed the government to move faster on permitting reform, warning that construction-sector investment decisions are already being delayed into next year.
What to watch before October
The real test will come with the state budget process this autumn, alongside how convincingly the government can show that the VAT cut, once measured against actual grocery prices, delivered real relief rather than symbolic action. The government’s cost-of-living record will also be compared directly with Lithuania’s and Estonia’s over the second half of the year, an assessment already underway in this week’s midyear Baltic economic review. Kulbergs’ team is betting that a handful of visible, if narrow, wins will outweigh criticism over slower structural reform when Latvians vote in roughly three months.