With Latvia’s October 3 election now roughly six weeks away, the latest polling offers the clearest picture yet of a race that remains unusually fluid, with no single party commanding more than a fifth of declared support and a striking share of voters still telling pollsters they haven’t decided.
- SKDS polling from mid-August puts the largest single party at 19% of declared support
- Roughly 20% of likely voters remain undecided, according to the same survey
- At least six parties are polling above the 5% threshold required to enter the Saeima
- Latvia’s 100-seat Saeima has not been controlled by a single-party majority since independence
Where the governing coalition stands
Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ three coalition parties, contesting the election on largely separate lists following July’s candidate list negotiations, are polling a combined share in the mid-30s — enough, in theory, to remain the largest governing bloc, but well short of a guaranteed majority given how fragmented the remaining vote is.
The opposition’s uneven position
The National Alliance has emerged as the single largest party in recent polling, buoyed by its younger candidate slate and a campaign built heavily around security and defence spending messaging. Other opposition parties have struggled to break out of single-digit polling territory individually, though several are now openly discussing post-election coalition possibilities that would have seemed unlikely just months ago.
What’s moving the numbers
Pollsters point to cost-of-living concerns as the single biggest driver of voter sentiment, with the government’s VAT reduction on staple foods cited by SKDS as a policy voters are broadly aware of but divided on whether it meaningfully improved household finances. Security and defence spending rank as the second most cited priority, reflecting a summer dominated by NATO summit coverage and a steady stream of border incident reports. Turnout is another wildcard analysts are watching closely: Latvia’s 2022 election saw turnout of just under 60%, and pollsters say this year’s numbers could move meaningfully depending on whether the undecided bloc turns out at all or simply stays home.
Why the undecided share matters so much
Political scientists describe the roughly one-in-five undecided voters as the single biggest variable in the race, large enough to reshape the final seat distribution regardless of how accurately current polling captures declared preferences. Ivars Ijabs, the University of Latvia political analyst who earlier this summer described the coalition’s governing style as “cautious to the point of drift,” said the scale of undecided voters this close to the election is itself telling. “Usually by six weeks out, that number has narrowed considerably. That it hasn’t suggests genuine dissatisfaction with the available choices, not just typical late deciding.” Campaign spending disclosures filed this month show the National Alliance and the three coalition parties accounting for the bulk of declared advertising spend so far, with smaller parties relying more heavily on social media outreach in place of traditional campaign advertising budgets they simply don’t have.
